..What the Double-Dip Recession Will Look Like
by Douglas A. McIntyre
Monday, August 16, 2010
provided by
"Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy has yet to hit bottom, a sharply higher percentage than the 53% who felt that way in January," according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.
A growing and vocal minority of economists believes that there will be a double-dip recession primarily because of the intransigence of high unemployment and the rapidly faltering housing market. The notion of a "jobless recovery" has been around since the recessions of the 1950s and 1960s. It is a concept built on a relatively simple idea: employment lags during a recession but it is always part of a recovery cycle. Production rises as businesses see the end of a downturn and anticipate improving sales. They are reluctant to hire new workers until the recovery is confirmed, but once it has been, hiring picks up.
• American Despair Grows
The 2008-2009 recession was — if it is indeed over — different from any other because of its depth and causes. The first trigger was the drop in housing prices, which robbed many people of their primary access to capital. As that access disappeared, so did the availability of credit. Consumer buying power evaporated and business cut inventory and production. Joblessness rose. Finally, consumer confidence plunged.
The last downturn was so great that in some months more than 500,000 people lost jobs. The unemployment rolls are now more than 8 million, and perhaps more gravely, over 1.4 million people have been out of work for over 99 weeks — which means they are no longer eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits. This segment of the population has already begun to add to the number of indigent Americans and will continue to do so unless they can find homes with friends and family.
The second dip of the recession that ended in 2009, according to economists and the federal government, is likely to begin within the next two quarters if certain conditions are met.
Unemployment claims are running well above expectations, and recently hit a six-month high. The four-week average of initial claims rose 14,250 to 473,500 this week. The last peak, in February, was during a period when GDP was in the very early stages of recovery. There is nearly no jobs creation in the private sector. Real estate prices continue to drop, particularly in the hardest hit regions such as California, Nevada, Florida and Michigan.
The federal, state and local governments are in no position to lend assistance to businesses, most of which lack access to capital. Similarly, banks are not prepared to lend to small businesses, especially those with modest balance sheets and relatively low sales. This presents a problem for employment since companies with less than one hundred workers have traditionally been the largest creators of jobs.
This is what a double-dip recession would look like:
1. Housing
The cost of homes in the areas where prices have already dropped by 50% or more will continue to fall. These regions typically have the highest unemployment rates, the local governments are hard pressed to offer basic services, and potential buyers are aware that home prices could drop further. Real estate values in these areas could drop another 20%. In the rest of the country, protracted unemployment and the unwillingness of banks to lend would make otherwise attractive all-time low mortgage rates unappealing.
[See Housing's Future: 10 Million More Renters]
2. Unemployment
Unemployment would move back above 10% quickly. In the 1982 recession, the jobless rate was over 10% for 20 consecutive months and reached 10.8% for two months. During this period, the manufacturing base had not been destroyed. The economy is now arguably worse than it was in 1982. Many Americans who worked in manufacturing before the recession cannot be retrained, and the factories where they worked will not be reopened. Many companies have recently adopted the policy that they will keep as much of their work-force temporary for as long as possible. This keeps the cost of benefits low and allows firms to fire people quickly and without severance. A hiring strike by American businesses would contribute to putting 200,000 to 300,000 people out of work per month. At the peak of the recession that just ended, there were nearly six job seekers for every open job, according to the Labor Department. The job market could return to that point.
3. Consumer Spending
One of the primary reasons that consumer buying activity did not grind to a halt at the beginning of the last recession was that people still had access to a huge reservoir of home equity loans, most of which were taken out at the peak of the real estate market in 2005 and 2006. The New York Times recently reported that "lenders wrote off as uncollectible $11.1 billion in home equity loans and $19.9 billion in home equity lines of credit in 2009, more than they wrote off on primary mortgages, government data shows. So far this year, the trend is the same." Retail activity was helped somewhat by the capital available on these lines of credit, so store closings were probably deferred to the latter part of 2008. With more than 11 million mortgages underwater, 24% of the national total, and several million more within a few percentage points of being negative, the consumer will have no cushion as the economy deteriorates over the next six months.
4. Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence, the critical gauge of the activity that represents two-thirds of U.S. GDP, will plummet again. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would certainly move back toward the all-time low it hit in February 2009 when it reached 25. Currently, the measure in most months is closer to 60.
[See 21 Things You Should Never Buy New]
5. Auto Industry
Auto sales, one of the primary barometers of consumer economic activity and manufacturing output, would probably drop back to recession levels. People concerned about employment will defer car purchases. Annual car sales in the U.S. were over 16 million in 2005 but dropped to just above 10 million in 2009. The car companies hope that domestic sales will rise to 11.5 million this year. In a double-dip recession, at least 1 million of those annual sales would be lost.
6. Trade
The nominal balance of trade would almost certainly drop, probably to a deficit of $25 billion a month, as the U.S. takes in fewer imports due to low demand for consumer goods and business inventory. Exports would also drop because an economic crisis in the U.S. would spread quickly worldwide. This is because of the tremendous size of the U.S. GDP in relation to that of any other country. The drop in imports would be a signal that business activity had slowed in China, the rest of Asia and Europe. Demand for consumer and business goods would drop in most regions, forcing a nearly universal cut in jobs outside the U.S.
7. Budget
The budget deficit would grow beyond the $1.5 trillion it should reach this year. Treasury receipts fell to $2.1 trillion in the federal fiscal year 2009 and are down to $1.7 trillion so far in the 2010 period. If history is any guide, receipts in a second recession could drop by as much as $200 trillion a year as tax receipts from both business and individuals falter. The demand on the federal government to render aid to the unemployed could add $50 billion to annual government outlays. Unemployment insurance will cost Washington $44 billion this year. As states run out of money to cover benefits, more of the burden could fall to the federal government.
8. National Debt
The rise in the deficit and a rapid increase in the American national debt would cause concern among the capital markets investors who purchase U.S. Treasuries. The inability of the Treasury to rein in spending will cause borrowing to increase. This in turn could bring the government's debt rating down, in turn causing U.S. borrowing costs to rise. Increasing costs will then raise the annual expenditure to run the government by increasing debt service.
9. Stock Market
If the performance of the equity markets in 2008 and early 2009 is any indication, the S&P 500 would drop from its current level of about 1,100 to a low of 676, which it hit in March 2009. This would take trillions of dollars off business balance sheets and from consumer retirement and brokerage accounts. Businesses would become less likely to invest in new plants, equipment and services. For individuals, many would see a large part of their retirement disappear. That would cause a huge drop in consumer spending as people attempt to preserve cash, perpetuating further drops in the stock market.
10. Banking
The effect on most of the financial services industry would be catastrophic, particularly at the regional and community bank level where a number of home and commercial real estate loans are held. The FDIC would be forced to borrow money from the Treasury to cover bank closings. The number of failed banks could reach the level of the savings and loan crisis during which over 700 banks and mortgage lenders were shuttered.
11. Interest Rates
As the great majority of economists have pointed out, the Fed has already dropped interest rates to zero. This means the central bank is out of ammunition
Get ready! it's coming, & "U"ve never seen anything like what it's going to be!!!
If that is what it takes, and I think it will be, that is OK. If that will save America, future generations will look in their history books and say "Yes, it was terrible for the people alive then, but in the end it saved us."
Like my mother used to say "People make a big deal out of the Fall of Rome, but if you go to Rome today it is full of Romans living their happy Roman lives. It's not going to be the End of the World."
At this point we are like a really bad diabetic foot. The foot has to come off to save the rest of the body. Folk will fight the amputation tooth and nail, but all you really have to do (and this is common practice) is stop the pain meds 48 hours before surgery.
Our day in the sun is at 5:30 in the afternoon. There are still too many people who think if you just get rid of the useless toes the rest of the foot will be fine.
First, a typo on #7 is a big one. One decimal point missing makes a big difference of 2 trillion or 200 trillion.
Second, a double dip recession is possible but what is the trigger to cause the panic to take it to that level? The last trigger was across the globe but there is no mention of what this trigger might be.
Third, no one wants to talk about it but what are some of the differences compared to previous economic down turns?
Businesses expect way to much profit. Businesses in past decades were happy with 3-7% profit margins but they got spoiled and believe profit and market growth should always be in the double digits.
In the past, upper management made a good living but now rape and pillage their companies by making hundreds of millions of dollars annually. No one is worth that much money and these salaries take away from a company bottom line, increases unemployment of their staff, etc. If these outrageous salaries were reduced to salaries comparable to the 1970's with increases for cost of living only, there would not be the high unemployment and every thing would be back to normal at this point.
Stock market folks are stupid---the other day I observed a big named company report their earnings of .52 cents a share but expectations was .53 cents a share and the stock of said company plunged 20%. Please explain how that makes since? Attitudes need to change from wall street to main street!!!!
When and if this happens, it will be the wealthy-wannabes that will suffer the most. Most of us on here have been struggling and putting up with various crisis situations so long that it won't be THAT much of a change in lifestyle . I really feel sorry for the folks living in those $200,000-$500,000 Mcmansions with two new car payments and all the fancy faux furniture inside. THEY will be the ones trying to figure out how THIS could happen to THEM.
I agree though. We've been living inside a system that is itself a lie. We have more and more people homeless and going homeless while others make over 900 thousand per hour...and the powers that be want us to continue playing Republican vs. Democrat. That's like a mouse looking at a cat and saying "No problem...it's a yellow cat. They like us. I've heard them say it!"
;D MR T. 'i' like your prospective. ::)
Sir Jeffery - "U" any kin to (( Jeff , Neocon, swift goat, Alfy, MR. Martin, etc. )) "U" sound 'just' like'hm!
hamjam - { "playing Rep VS Dem" }, BUT what do "WE" do??
Tehy could care less about "US" but "WE" still vote'm 'n' - who's to blame anyhow?.? :o ::) ???
In many ways, we are, because we don't demand campaign finance reform and Congressional term limits AND we continue to allow lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court. ::)
Whoo, let's change all that & show gov "WE" still { rule!}. Yeh! we'll set on our hands & do nothing - so the shape this country is in is "OUR" fault. Abunch of spoiled, self conceited, dogooders that "DO!" nothing, accept complain if it directly affects "US".
We can vote, write letters, talk to other people, have yard signs, and march in protest.
What else can we do?
Organize! Let the 'common good' bring "US" together (major points) & not sweat the small stuff. The "Tea Party" is an example of people trying to change the country, but just like Dems & Reps they don't all think alike, but @ least they have the major goal of trying to improve the country - not personal issues; the me, me, me's.
It's definitely time "WE" had a third voice in this country. Yes! it'l be tough, but once it's rolling it'l rule because "WE"ll again have the voice of the people running a country for the 'common' folk "&" we're the majority!! So LET'S RULE!
Do you have any tea party or third party candidates in your state?
This is kinda off topic, so sorry in advance. Has anyone seen the Mary Fallin commercial, where she talks about her short time in Washington? She makes it sound as if she couldn't get out of there fast enough, when in reality, she knows her chances of being re-elected weren't that great.
She has these ads running via the Republican Governors Association, and of course, they are linking Askins to Obama. While I believe Askins may try to continue to run a clean campaign, I'd love to see her run a commercial calling out Fallin's platform of "family values". She could use public records and point out Fallin's family values apparently don't apply to her, since she cheated on her husband and hooked up with a Workers' Compensation defense attorney up in OKC. ::)
She needs to do something because she is losing big time if you believe the polls.
Fallin has tiny eyes. They make me nervous.
Sorry '2' impose on your local politics, but 'i' thought you'd like this;
(http://edsteinink.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Stei100929.gif)
Quote from: Mr T on September 29, 2010, 09:19:50 AM
Fallin has tiny eyes. They make me nervous.
Yeah, and a smile that never quite reaches those tiny eyes. Every time I think of Fallin (not often) I visualize her a few years ago at some speech Bush Jr. was making. Afterward, and as presidents typically do, he went through the crowd, shaking hands and signing things. Fallin wormed her way through and was able to get something signed by him...then she stalked him through the crowd to try and get something ELSE signed. ::) That time he blew her off. ;D
I've seen that unfriendly woman at several OU games. She works her way through the crowd like some megastar. Republican shill comes to mind. She is nothing more than the horny shadow of old BIGHEAD Keating.
JARI ASKINS for Governator!
But, but, but...the Republicans will provide good jobs and health insurance for us! All we have to do is set the rich free and they will build factories and shops!
It would be funny if it weren't so sad, and if so many people didn't believe it to be true. Haven't we been down this road a couple of times before?
I have always wondered about certain aspects of our tax system. Why should we be taxed on what we earn? It seems that someone making 25K a year uses about the same services as someone making 60K. Why should some be taxed at 25% and others at almost 50%?
And why should single people with no children (and never will) have to pay taxes for schools, parks, etc.?
I guess we could tax everyone at 25% across the board, straight up, no exemptions or finagling. No off-shoring. No special hiding-places or taxable categories. 25% of everything that comes in goes out.
I support a national sales tax (fair tax) approach. That would catch every profession that avoids paying anything (contractors, delivery drivers, drug dealers, strippers, etc.). With the exception of property taxes, counties, cities and states receive their revenue inthis fashion, why not the federal government?
``people need to know that we can get rid of the IRS, and have no new Tax.'' @ first that sounds great, " idit give the gov time to rethink what they're ' {doing} doing '2' "US". But "WE" must be taxed, since that's the only way the gov can make money! Let's just decide ( how much they need - and to ask for it very politely ) - - - let "US" decide "NOT Pelosi... RIGHT!?
Quote from: RatSass on October 01, 2010, 10:54:57 AM
I have always wondered about certain aspects of our tax system. Why should we be taxed on what we earn?We dont want to live in a real 3rd world nation? It seems that someone making 25K a year uses about the same services as someone making 60K.How many times will a 25k a year individual fly out of Will Rogers airport? Why should some be taxed at 25% and others at almost 50%?Taxes should be fair when income is fair. Or why should someone make 25k a year and others 1.6 billion?
A lot of people of wealth have accountants that make use of every loophole they can to keep the tax bill low. I knew a multi-millionaire doctor that used to buy salt wells just so he could claim a loss. His taxes were still in the five figures still but what he kept was astonomical. 25% of a $25,000 household affects those folks more than 25% of a 5 million dollar household(with a CPA on retainer).
Quote from: WhatMeWorry? on October 01, 2010, 06:19:09 PMWe dont want to live in a real 3rd world nation?
How does the method the government uses to take my money correlate to me wanting to live in a 3rd world nation?
Quote from: WhatMeWorry? on October 01, 2010, 06:19:09 PMHow many times will a 25k a year individual fly out of Will Rogers airport?
How does different tax rates have anything to do with flying?
Quote from: WhatMeWorry? on October 01, 2010, 06:19:09 PMOr why should someone make 25k a year and others 1.6 billion?
Some are lazy and some are not, some are achievers and some would rather sit around and wait for entitlements from the government.
RatSass, that post was so far out there I did not respond but I liked your response to it, lol ::;: ::;: ::;:
Quote from: RatSass on October 01, 2010, 09:14:49 PM
How does the method the government uses to take my money correlate to me wanting to live in a 3rd world nation?You are right. The government doesnt build and maintain the infrastructure that makes America a first world nation. And paying taxes isnt how it springs into existence. Maybe its gods reward for the American individualist ethos.
How does different tax rates have anything to do with flying?The government runs the airports. Thats a service. 25k a year folks dont use that service at the same rate as 60k a year people or 750k a year people.
Some are lazy and some are not, some are achievers and some would rather sit around and wait for entitlements from the government.Well thanks for taking the time away from your luxurious billionaire life to interact with the lazy underachievers. :rolleyes:
Quote from: Sir Jeffrey on October 02, 2010, 05:39:30 AM
RatSass, that post was so far out there I did not respond but I liked your response to it, lol ::;: ::;: ::;:
I had you pegged as brighter than that.
Disappointing.
Quote from: hammondjam on October 01, 2010, 06:28:38 PM
A lot of people of wealth have accountants that make use of every loophole they can to keep the tax bill low. I knew a multi-millionaire doctor that used to buy salt wells just so he could claim a loss. His taxes were still in the five figures still but what he kept was astonomical. 25% of a $25,000 household affects those folks more than 25% of a 5 million dollar household(with a CPA on retainer).
Its pretty simple isnt it.
And downright unfair.
And then they say if ya aint rich you are lazy or an underachiever.
And they are only third world rich themselves.
They are nuts.
Well, I do believe a flat tax on income is very appropriate, and correct me if I'm wrong (entirely possible), but don't we already pay a flat tax on services already via sales tax? Granted, it may vary a bit from city to city, but that could be fixed on a state level.
There's some business tax loopholes I think are grossly unfair - for instance, my boss gets to buy a car under his corporation and gets to write the payments off as a business expense...well hell, I have to drive to work every day too, and run business-related errands, so why shouldn't I be allowed to write a car payment off as well? >:( I'm not talking about writing off mileage, I know that's a reimburseable expense so long as a log is kept, but the car itself and the insurance being write-offs (to whatever percentage)? That's just wrong. Why should a business or member of a certain profession get a "professional discount" on services? If the discount applies to one it should be applied to all. It's back door elitism.
Quote from: RatSass on October 01, 2010, 09:14:49 PM
Some are lazy and some are not, some are achievers and some would rather sit around and wait for entitlements from the government.
Man...this is getting ugly. I can't decide if I'm lazy or if I'm just a ward of the government.
I WILL say that I've worked all my life(since 11) and when I need MORE money, I work MORE. Me and T have paid off over 70K in the last 19 years which includes child support and a hefty student loan. I've had to work harder and produce more than good ol' white boys because I've never been white enough or (because of my last name) American enough. Despite those roadblocks I've been promoted several times and frequently got the new equipment because I take care of what I work with. With all my attention to my job, I'm STILL not rich. I challenge ANY rich person to show me that his/her work ethic is better than mine. Also, there's a big difference between a Bill Gates who pioneered a product through many hours of R&D and some schmuck who sells junk bonds and bets against hedge funds to make his coin.
Money from the government can take many other forms. ::D:
Quote from: Whoo on October 02, 2010, 07:39:00 AM
Well, I do believe a flat tax on income is very appropriate, and correct me if I'm wrong (entirely possible), but don't we already pay a flat tax on services already via sales tax? Granted, it may vary a bit from city to city, but that could be fixed on a state level.
Yes, primarily the county, city, and state is ran by collecting sales tax. The city collects extra money through property tax, the state collects extra through excise, gas/oil production, and fees for services. All three collects some money from their law enforcement agenicies/courts but from what I remember from looking at the numbers the majority of the money received for all three is through sales tax.
Ham, trust me, I know you well enough I can vouch you are not lazy ::;:
WMW, I just don't waste my time on drive by posters or idiots ::D: (your the first and I do not know you well enough if you can be included in the latter).
Quote from: hammondjam on October 02, 2010, 08:46:03 AMWith all my attention to my job, I'm STILL not rich.
You are richer than you realize buddy! I admire all you have accomplished and consider myself lucky to know you. Hard work will eventually pay off for you. You are a real person who has thought out his opinion on many things. You do not hide behind your screen name and stir up controversy as a couple of trouble makers have done on the forum.
Thanks Rat!! I am glad to know you too! ::;: I sometimes don't think long enough before posting though. I lumped your answer to WMW in with some of the mean spirited things that I've been hearing about people on Social Security. One person on another forum told T that she shouldn't go to the ER, have access to Medicaid OR buy health insurance because that person would obviously be paying the bill as they are quite comfortable financially. T should just suck it up and just die. This came from a woman that claims to be a God-fearing Christian. It just doesn't matter how long T worked and paid into the system. It doesn't matter to them that her condition was caused by doctors overradiating her. She's just a parasite according to the elitists.
Thank you too, Sir Jeffrey. We've been feeling a bit low and it's nice to have folks backing us up! ::D:
I always will have your back Ham/T!!!!!!
And that goes your way also! ::D:
Hard work, education and actually living within one's means doesn't ensure success. Like Jam, I started working at a regular job when I was 10, I had a good education, my mother sat us down at the kitchen table at young ages to show us how to live on a budget. I always paid my bills first, I sought additional education when certain areas of employment dried up (hell, I've had educations in government, law, health, etc. just to be able to keep working), the majority of my life I worked two and even three jobs... and then my body gave out. Now, I am earning less money than I did AT AGE 16. Let me repeat that, AT AGE 16. What I received from employers over the years was squat; they demanded more and gave less in return, and enjoyed the fruits of MY labor. Now, the system I have paid into for more than 30 years is slowly starving me to death - were it not for my parents, I'd be one of those homeless folks. :mad:
Ambition today seems to mean climbing the ladder with hooks in both hands so one can pull off the folks above while cutting the ladder below so as to keep competition away. It means betting against one's country. It means making an uncrossable line between the have's and the have nots. :mad:
Of course, rich and powerful doesn't always insure happiness. Just look at the number of celebrities that have it all and throw it away. I'd rather sit at a table in Bill's with my friends, with a $30.00 budget, than to be at a table of tycoons and Hollywood fakes in Beverly Hills! ::;:
Quote from: hammondjam on October 03, 2010, 09:16:58 AMI'd rather sit at a table in Bill's with my friends, with a $30.00 budget,
I don't think I have spent that much at one time at Bills. When are we going again?
How about one night this week? I'm ready Freddie! :8):
Quote from: Mr T on October 03, 2010, 01:42:54 PM
How about one night this week? I'm ready Freddie! :8):
Any night is fine with me, somebody pick one.
Let's start off by making it Wednesday. We're flexible if someone has a better night.
((( "U" DO! know we're already there! RIGHT!?
Quote from: Sir Jeffrey on October 02, 2010, 12:22:31 PM
Ham, trust me, I know you well enough I can vouch you are not lazy ::;:RH, you are one of the "good ones"!
WMW, I just don't waste my time on drive by posters or idiots ::D: (your the first and I do not know you well enough if you can be included in the latter). LOL Drive by poster huh? Why dont you just defend your position instead of attacking me personally? Oh yeah, you cant.
Quote from: RatSass on October 02, 2010, 01:52:03 PM
You are richer than you realize buddy!Go look at your checking account since we are talking about money not friends and life expereinces. I admire all you have accomplished and consider myself lucky to know you.You are truly one of the "good ones" RH. Unlike me. Hard work will eventually pay off for you.Just work for 30 more years. Its right around the corner. You are a real person who has thought out his opinion on many things.Unlike me and my opinions. But I aint one of the "good ones". You do not hide behind your screen name and stir up controversy as a couple of trouble makers have done on the forum. Stir up controversy? Waaaaaahh! My name is Scott Heath and I am a liberal.
Quote from: Whoo on October 03, 2010, 08:01:52 AM
Hard work, education and actually living within one's means doesn't ensure success. Like Jam, I started working at a regular job when I was 10, I had a good education, my mother sat us down at the kitchen table at young ages to show us how to live on a budget. I always paid my bills first, I sought additional education when certain areas of employment dried up (hell, I've had educations in government, law, health, etc. just to be able to keep working), the majority of my life I worked two and even three jobs... and then my body gave out. Now, I am earning less money than I did AT AGE 16. Let me repeat that, AT AGE 16. What I received from employers over the years was squat; they demanded more and gave less in return, and enjoyed the fruits of MY labor. Now, the system I have paid into for more than 30 years is slowly starving me to death - were it not for my parents, I'd be one of those homeless folks. :mad:
Its like everyones experiences disprove Jeffs and rats american experience theory.
I think you have Jeffrey and Rat linked by mistake. I could be in error, but I think you have Jeffrey all wrong.
Jeffrey takes the civility of the forum to heart. Discussion is great, even small arguments as long as they remain polite. As he said, he does not know you so he hasn't decided about you per se, but he does appreciate not-yelling.
I don't think he was talking about your opinions as much as he was talking about your posting style. You are abrasive and confrontational, and I think it keeps folk who don't "know" you reacting to your persona and not your information. Your opinions get lost in the anger.
Double-post alert! I like you and I respect your opinions. You don't talk about things if you don't know. When you say something I take it seriously. I think that is because I know you from before and we went to some trouble to get to know each other. I let all the emotion go over my head and read your facts.
We haven't eaten seafood since you explained about the pirates. Not even a can of tuna, because you were right. We ate/poisoned all of our own, and now we are stealing/poisoning their fish. God forbid we shouldn't have "heart-healthy fish oil capsules" and delicious whatever the latest culinary screech is.
After all, we deserve it! - Don't we? ::(:
I wish Ada weren't so far away so you could come to Bills with us.
(http://laughingsquid.com/wp-content/uploads/hopeless-20081027-135546.jpg)
MR. T, below his picture is a caption HOPELESS! "U" say "U" got to know him? 'me' ( 2 )
Quote from: Mr T on October 03, 2010, 07:32:29 PM
I think you have Jeffrey and Rat linked by mistake. I could be in error, but I think you have Jeffrey all wrong. I Think you are correct. It struck me as weird what he posted. I apologize.
Jeffrey takes the civility of the forum to heart.I dont respond to class warfare directed at you and I with civility. Discussion is great, even small arguments as long as they remain polite.He did insinuate I was possibly an idiot. And if he isnt willing to call out the bigots at the barber shop then his civility isnt worth a tinkers dang. As he said, he does not know you so he hasn't decided about you per se, but he does appreciate not-yelling.i have posted quite a bit on the norman forum. Whoo knew me and if Jeffrey doesnt then he needs to pay closer attention.
I don't think he was talking about your opinions as much as he was talking about your posting style."I yam what I yam and tha's all what I yam." -- Popeye the Sailor and me You are abrasive and confrontational, and I think it keeps folk who don't "know" you reacting to your persona and not your information.Richard Pryor said "Ive got a right to be hostile, my people are being persecuted!" Your opinions get lost in the anger.
Howard Beale: I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's work, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV's while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be. We know things are bad - worse than bad. They're crazy. It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, 'Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone.' Well, I'm not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot - I don't want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. I don't know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you've got to get mad.
Howard Beale: [shouting] You've got to say, 'I'm a HUMAN BEING, Goddamnit! My life has VALUE!' So I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell,
[screaming at the top of his lungs]
Howard Beale: 'I'M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!' I want you to get up right now, sit up, go to your windows, open them and stick your head out and yell - 'I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Things have got to change. But first, you've gotta get mad!... You've got to say, 'I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Then we'll figure out what to do about the depression and the inflation and the oil crisis. But first get up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it:
Howard Beale:[screaming at the top of his lungs] "I'M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!"
Maybe I can make it to Bills sometime. I would like that.
I am working out of town right now. Maybe after the first of the year.
Wednesday sounds good to me, but will we get together again closer to Halloween?! :)
Hubz will probably work on Wednesday. IDK right now... We'll see.
So, Wednesday, Bill's @ 6:30 pm with a request for another the week of Holloween?
I'm there! And also there. :smile:
I will be there both times.
i think he's off on wed, but he broke THE bad tooth today. Idk how he'll feel. AND with my broken foot? sigh...
Ah, the emerging foreign family in favor with the Bush clan after 09/11:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39528462/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times
All the money being funneled out of our pockets and into yet another foreign family's...in this instance, I'd venture to say whomever controls the country (Afghanistan) controls the destiny of the poppy fields. Without the poppy fields, the drug companies have nothing (cheap) to make their bigger-better-faster-more drugs to try out on the American public. Strategically, the US military needs to set up shop somewhere in the region, and since Pakistan doesn't look like they don't know how to play the ballgame very well, Afghanistan is almost a two-for-the-price-of-one country.
Bear with me a second...
An old military friend and I were discussing this last night. What is the one thing the Afghans have going for them? The opium crop. Multi-billion crop, it is. What is a common element used by terrorists, cartels in establishing power? Drugs. Lotsa moolah off the drug trade. Now, the US government tried to go into Afghanistan and convince the generations-old poppy farmers to give up their cash crops and turn to regular farming as a means to support themselves and get out from under the oppression/slavery they put themselves into (and yeah, maybe they could supplement their incomes by being allowed to keep a smaller portion of their lands as poppy fields, which would be "monitored" but utilized to "help the worlds' medical communities"). The Taliban, etc. says to the farmers, "Why go through all that work to MAYBE make enough to feed yourselves, we will make sure you have cash now, because we don't care who fries their brains on opium, we will sell it anyway and cut you a slice." Enter the Karzais. Well trained in commerce, politics, etc. courtesy of diplomatic ties to the US. They can take Afghanistan and turn it into one big Karzai estate... and control the poppy fields. And make a huge fortune off the worlds' medical communities and drug companies. ::)
The US, well governed by the drug companies ::) see this as being a good thing. Then Karzai started getting wishy-washy, and Obama doesn't like what he is seeing (Karzai was getting chummy with the Taliban again, playing one side against the other for the higher dollar)... now we hear in the news that for some unknown reason the opium crops, many of which are grown by family members of the Taliban, have sustained some mysterious, unknown fungi or disease, or something, but essentially the bottom line is their cash flow is gonna be low enough to make a significant bite. Much teeth gnashing and wailing commences, and now the Karzai family is reaching out to the Taliban, offering reintegration, the potential for income and a normal life...yeah, like, "if you're good boys, we can work with the bigger boys and ALL be rich." It's not really true, but it sounds good, and the perpetually stoned farmers are buying into it, and therefore, the pressure they put upon their brethren Taliban soldiers to work with the Afghan government (the Karzais) is significant. Everyone is happy, particularly the pharmaceutical companies. And their investors. >:(
DA!
Oh, how nice - let's tick off the Chinese:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39598178/ns/politics-the_new_york_times
Scapegoat, indeed. ::)
I guess we need to buy 535 mirrors for them to look into.
If so many jobs are moving to China and the politicos know about it....do something besides BS for votes!!
In the meantime, we all need to try to buy American as much as we can.
My exes' father was Polish but soooo proud to be an American he insisted nothing was to be brought into his home unless it was made in the USA. If more people would take the time to do the amazingly scary treasure hunt we did trying to find stuff still manufactured and sold in the US, maybe the outcry would have some reasonance with our politicians.
If people bought just USA that would put Wal-mart out of business.
OH NO !!! What would happen to the people of Wal-mart? :o
I guess they would have to take their fashion faux pas elsewhere!!! ;D Eghads, I just really have a hard time with people wearing their pj's and house shoes out in public. ::)
Taxpayer Revolt?
People working in the private sector apparently were willing to accept the higher pay, more job security and better retirement benefits for state and local employees in past years. High employment in the private sector and robust economic growth at least held out the hope that their lots would improve tomorrow. But with slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment now expected by them for years, voter attitudes appear to be changing.
Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection. But they apparently are deciding they're paying too much for those services; that 34% higher wages for state and local employees compared to private sector workers isn't justified as pay cuts multiply in the private sector and those laid off earn much less if and when they can find another job; that 66% higher benefit costs is over the top, especially as private sector employees are paying more of their health care premiums and seeing their defined benefit pension plans replaced by much more uncertain 401(k)s.
As taxpayers revolt, there are plenty of things that can be done to reduce state and local government costs in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures are being established with existing employees continuing at current salary levels, but new hires paid the much lower wages adequate to attract qualified people. And the new people are enrolled in defined contribution pension plans that require employee contributions, not defined benefit plans, while their retirement ages are increased.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-double-dip#ixzz13T1Iidoo
IT"S not just the ' Fed'. State & local learned quick from their Daddy!
Uncle Sam?
No double-dip recession
By Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, CNNMoney guest columnistsOctober 28, 2010: 12:47 PM ET
Commentary: Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are, respectively, co-founder and chief operating officer and co-founder and chief research officer of ECRI, the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen.
That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World War II slowdowns that didn't lead to recession.
71Email Print CommentFor 25 years, we've personally spent every working day studying recessions and recoveries. Based on our work and that of our colleagues at ECRI, we've called the last three recessions and recoveries without any false alarms, including an accurate forecast of the end of the most recent recession in the summer of 2009.
After completing an exhaustive review of key drivers of the business cycle, ranging from credit to inventories and measures of labor market conditions, we can forecast with confidence that the economy will avoid a double dip.
But the bad news is that a revival in economic growth is not yet in sight. The slowing of economic growth that began in mid-2010 will continue through early 2011. Thus, private sector job growth, which is already easing, will slow further, keeping the double-dip debate alive.
Of course, it is the renewed job market weakness, combined with deflation fears, that is behind the Fed's promise to implement a second round of quantitative easing, or QE2.
The problem with QE2
The worse news is that, even without the nightmare of a new recession, an uglier scenario may still lie ahead in the form of unintended consequences of such Fed stimulus.
Fed policy shifts have been chronically late, resulting in the need for increasingly heroic measures to right the economy.
Because monetary policy acts with "long and variable lags," the Fed should, in principle, rely on forward-looking measures to time its actions. Yet, in practice, it does pretty much the opposite, relying on backward-looking statistics like core inflation and hard-to-assess measures of the so-called output gap, including estimates of "full employment."
In early 2010, when we warned publicly of an approaching slowdown, a sanguine Fed was plainly focused on its "exit strategy" to remove the trillions of dollars of cash it had injected into the economy after cutting short-term interest rates to near zero -- only to belatedly reverse its stance some weeks ago.
This is hardly the first time the Fed has been spectacularly behind the curve in detecting a turn in the business cycle.
In mid-2003, the last time "core" inflation was this low, the Fed cut rates to just 1% and kept it there for a year, contributing in no small measure to the inflation of the housing bubble that ended so disastrously.
In mid-2008, oblivious to the recession that had begun six months earlier, they telegraphed to the markets a 50% increase in rates by year-end, from 2% to 3%, in order to fight inflation.
0:00 /2:42A long, winding road ... no double-dip
The consequences of these mistakes played out in the subsequent quarters and years to the severe detriment of the economy. But today the fallout from such timing errors, which are likely to set off bigger boom-bust cycles with more frequent recessions, could be far greater with the Fed's balance sheet as gigantic as it is, and poised to expand further.
In fact, the Fed is about to launch QE2 because it believes inflation to be too low, which really means they are willing to go to new extremes to head off the risk of deflation.
Yet, over the last two centuries the U.S. economy has seen sustained deflation only when it has mostly been in recession -- a scenario that our analysis rules out for now. While the current expansion is likely to be shorter than anyone is used to, its demise in not imminent.
Today, the car that is the U.S. economy is crawling uphill, slowing as its engine sputters. With politicians fighting about whether to use a screwdriver or a spanner wrench to fix the motor, the Fed is convinced we'll end up using neither. Determined not to let the car start rolling back disastrously downhill, yet unaware that the road is about to level off, the Fed is strapping an untested rocket onto the car in hopes of blasting it over the top.
The Fed, looking out the rear-view mirror to steer the car, won't know when we're approaching a bend in the road, though we're now high up in the mountains, with a dangerous abyss below.
::)